Main points
- There is no threat of an attack from Belarus at the moment, but provocations are possible in the future.
- The enemy is trying to distract Ukrainian forces to attack in the east and north.
By escalating the situation on the border with Belarus, the enemy is trying to achieve its goals in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions / Photo by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense
The latest intelligence data shows that Russia has not abandoned its intention to drag Minsk into the war. The threat of an attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus is once again on the agenda.
“There is no threat of an attack from Belarus right now. However, it cannot be ruled out that the enemy will resort to provocations in the future,” said Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation.
What is the probability of an attack from Belarus in the near future?
According to Kovalenko, militarily Belarus is a weak country, incapable of anything without the Russians. There are few Russian troops there. Therefore, now the enemy is relying exclusively on information provocations.
At the same time, it should be taken into account that the enemy continues to build up logistics near the Ukrainian border. This means that the prospect of aggression from Belarus in the future remains.
Kovalenko emphasized that our troops in the border area are in full combat readiness. If the Belarusians resort to provocation, they will suffer crushing defeats and may even lose their own territory.
The Central Military District emphasizes that Moscow has now given Minsk the task of escalating the situation. The occupiers are preparing for assaults on the east and south of Ukraine in the spring and summer. Therefore, it is important for them to distract Ukrainian forces to other areas – Sumy, Kharkiv, and the border with Belarus.
As for the military threat, there is none at the moment. If Lukashenko makes such a mistake, he will simply be gone,
– Kovalenko emphasized.
Why is the threat of an attack from Belarus being talked about again?
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According to intelligence, Belarus is building road infrastructure in the border areas towards Ukraine and equipping artillery positions.
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The self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, signed a decree on the conscription of reserve officers into military service.
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Military observer Vasyl Pekhno notes that Lukashenko's aggressive statements are related to Russia's problems at the front. At such moments, Moscow often uses Belarus as an element of pressure and intimidation. These are attempts to force Ukraine to transfer part of its troops to the northern direction in order to weaken other sections of the front. Provocations on the border are also possible to cause panic.
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Russia may use the territory of Belarus not for a direct attack, but for hybrid pressure on Ukraine – provocations and attempts to distract Ukrainian troops. This is stated by the founder of the KRAKEN unit Konstantin Nemichev. According to him, the Belarusian army is not ready for a full-fledged war at the moment, so it is more likely to be local actions near the border.
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Expert Pavlo Lakiychuk notes that Putin may exert strong pressure on Minsk and actually use the Belarusian army in his own interests. The reason is the lack of resources in Russia due to heavy losses on the front. According to him, Moscow is either trying to attract additional forces from outside or gain control over part of the Belarusian troops. At the same time, Russian influence in the structures of Belarus is already significant. Lukashenko, in turn, is trying to strike a balance: he demonstrates loyalty to the Kremlin, but avoids direct entry into the war. At the same time, experts do not rule out that Russia may try to use the Belarusian resource even without the full consent of Minsk.