Main points
- USDA lowered its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports to 12.5 million tons and barley to 2.2 million tons for the 2025/26 season.
- Global grain market forecasts show growth, with wheat production estimated at 844.15 million tons.
Grain exports will fall / Photo Pixabay
The US revised its forecast for Ukrainian grain exports downwards. The largest adjustments affected wheat and barley, while corn estimates remained stable.
US lowers forecasts for Ukraine
In its April report, the USDA downgraded its expectations for grain exports from Ukraine in the 2025/26 marketing year. In particular, the forecast for wheat exports was lowered to 12.5 million tons, which is 1 million tons less than the previous estimate.
At the same time, the forecast for the harvest of this crop remained unchanged – at 24 million tons.
Analysts also reduced the estimate for barley exports to 2.2 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. The production forecast for this crop remains at 5.6 million tons.
As for corn, there have been no changes: the expected gross harvest is 30.7 million tons, and exports are 22 million tons.
Global markets rise despite correction
In contrast to Ukrainian indicators, global grain market forecasts show growth. In particular, world wheat production is estimated at 844.15 million tons, which is 2 million tons more than in the previous forecast. Exports of this crop also increased – to 221.9 million tons.
Global corn production is expected to reach 1,301 million tonnes, 3.6 million tonnes higher than the previous estimate. Exports are also expected to increase to 200.5 million tonnes.
Global barley production is forecast at 154.8 million tonnes, with international trade at nearly 32.58 million tonnes, all of which also show slight increases compared to previous estimates.
Feed corn is getting cheaper: why are traders lowering purchase prices?
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Purchase prices for feed corn in Ukrainian ports are decreasing due to global market trends and reduced purchasing activity.
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Corn demand prices in the ports of Greater Odessa and Danube are 210–218 USD per ton, which is 1–2 USD less than last week.