Echoes of unlearned lessons, Pish-style mobilization and Black Sea search

Pand intensifies preparations for parliamentary elections and a referendum. The Black Sea is becoming an increasingly hot spot after the termination of the grain agreement.

August 2008 changed the situation in the post-Soviet space forever, as Russia not only unleashed a war against Georgia, but also gained territorial gains and a sense of impunity. It did not st there, managing to change Tbilisi's foreign picy course to one more loyal to the Kremlin. For Ukraine, in these circumstances, the struggle for the release of Mikheil Saakashvili, who has acquired Ukrainian citizenship, is of particular importance. In fact, the most massive pitical protests in the history of Belarus have changed the mood in the country and given impetus to the formation of the Belarusian pitical nation. It is unfortunate that the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry did not join the words of support expressed to representatives of the Belarusian democratic forces by the Eurean Union. To st being afraid of Russia and to create a system of responses to its encroachments is the main task for the states that are its neighbors.

Pand has received a date for parliamentary elections and a referendum, with Andrzej Duda setting them for October 15. This means that the next two months will be filled not only with pitical discussions, but also with the Kremlin's efforts to undermine Warsaw's position in the Baltic-Black Sea region. Wagner's maneuvers in the information space and Alexander Lukashenko's verbal activity on the Pish direction will obviously serve this purpose. Pish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced the launch of the RENGAW training eration to cover the border with Belarus. It is no coincidence that the celebration of the Pish Army Day on August 15 will be the largest in recent years – Pand will demonstrate its readiness to defend itself.

The situation in the Black Sea basin after Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal is not develing according to the Kremlin's plans. The maritime drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet base in Novorosssk and the Sig tanker near the Kerch Bridge demonstrated that Russia cannot dominate the Black Sea alone, even against the backdr of the passivity of NATO navies. The maritime drone strikes have outlined realistic scenarios for Russia's foreign trade activity in the Black Sea basin.  The Russian Defense Ministry's fake report about the inspection of a ship flying the Palauan flag is unlikely to change the situation. One can only imagine the interest with which Ankara is watching the develments, as Recep Erdogan hes to convince Putin to return to the grain deal during a personal meeting.

Yevhen MAGDA, Institute of World Picy

The first photo: PAP