Main points
- The Ukrainian grain market faces the risk of significant carryover grain residues, while farmers are changing their approaches to cultivation.
- Wheat prices have stabilized, and corn exports are stable at 2.6-2.7 million tons per month.
What about the grain market / Photo Pixabay
The Ukrainian grain market is entering a new season with the risk of significant carryovers. At the same time, farmers are changing their approaches to growing and storing grain in response to costs and market conditions.
Wheat: exports lag, surpluses grow
Agricultural expert Andriy But told Channel 24 that the harvesting campaign in Ukraine is not yet over – farmers continue to harvest “winter” corn. Producers are slowly getting used to the idea that they can leave the corn in the field and wait for it to dry out.
According to him, the quality of such corn most often does not meet the requirements of the State Standard of Ukraine, but there is demand for it – the question is always about price. Accordingly, taking into account the high humidity in the fall (25-35%) and the prices for drying at that time, perhaps the idea of leaving corn until spring does not seem so wild now.
Andriy But
Director of the Department of Foreign Economic Activities of the Agrotrade Group
The pace of exports from Ukraine this season continues to lag behind last year's. In February, 0.6 million tons were exported (in the previous season – 1.2 million tons), in March exports are likely to be 0.8-0.9 million tons (against 1.1 million tons last year). Although the pace is improving, it remains insufficient – with such dynamics, farmers will enter the new 2026/2027 season with significant transitional balances, which may reach 5 million tons.
On the other hand, according to the specialist, this may not be a strong stress for producers, given the experience of 2022-2023. After some strengthening in March, wheat prices stabilized and even calmed down somewhat, falling a couple of dollars from their peaks.
Domestic market prices for wheat on a DAP port basis are currently:
- Grade 4 – $217 – $218 per ton;
- Grade 3 – $221 – $223 per ton;
- Grade 2 – $224 – $225 per ton.
Corn: stable exports and new approaches from farmers
Corn export rates have stabilized at 2.6-2.7 million tons per month. The export potential is 26-27 million tons, which means that the situation with transitional corn residues will be similar to the situation with wheat – by the end of the current corn season (September), grain residues may amount to 4-5 million tons.
And again, such transitional residues are unlikely to cause much discomfort to producers, who are more equipped with both circulating cats and storage capacities,
– says Andriy But.
According to him, the situation in the world suggests that there may be no cheap energy sources, and therefore cheap grain in the world in the near future. On the other hand, with a good harvest in 2026, significant volumes of supply may form in Ukraine, which may put pressure on prices at the moment. We will observe how the situation will develop, but working in the commodity market is increasingly beginning to resemble gambling.
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Prices on DAP port terms are $216-218 per ton.
Global flour trade falls: volumes set to hit 4-year low
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World trade in wheat flour in the 2025-2026 marketing year will fall to 16 million tons, the lowest level in four years.
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The main factors behind the decline in imports are reduced purchases by Iraq and Sudan, while Syria is increasing imports to record levels due to a weak harvest.