Main points
- Russia is transferring large contingents to the Zaporizhia region, which may indicate an attempt to launch an offensive.
- Ukraine changed tactics, resumed strikes on occupied territories, destroying energy infrastructure and communications, which complicates enemy coordination.
Russia is moving large contingents into the Zaporizhia region, indicating an attempt to launch an offensive. However, Ukraine has developed tactics in recent years to disrupt Russian offensives, and is destroying energy infrastructure, communications, and data centers in the occupied territories.
Petro Andryuschenko, head of the Center for the Study of Occupation, explained to Channel 24 that Ukrainian forces are effectively resisting the Russian military machine thanks to a young military leadership.
What do the unusual movements of Russians in the Zaporizhia direction indicate?
The Ukrainian side has recorded a large Russian transfer in the Zaporizhia region, when units are being withdrawn from the front line, rather than from distant camps. The transfer is accompanied by a large number of police, who are trying to hide the movement of several dozen trucks, armored vehicles, and engineering units.
This unusual transfer for the beginning of the month could indicate an attempt by Russia to launch an offensive. We are currently monitoring their movements. This is unexpected, because Russia usually operates on a schedule: recruiting recruits, convincing them that they will be drivers in the Rostov region, and then launching an assault,
– Andryuschenko explained.
In the coming days, it will become clear whether Russia is trying to launch an offensive or is preparing a response to Ukrainian counterattacks.
Ukraine has stopped announcing counteroffensive and stabilization operations before they are completed, which increases the surprise effect. Previously, constant coverage of information led to negative consequences, now Ukrainians have learned to use the “fog of war” on the battlefield.
“These actions are not large-scale counteroffensives, but systematic stabilization operations. Due to Ukraine's high activity, the enemy is advancing more slowly, and Ukrainian society is used to strikes on Russia, so it is less interested in details from the front. This reduction in interest and information noise actually helps to conduct counteroffensive operations unnoticed,” Andryuschenko said.
Why did Ukraine resume strikes on the occupied territories?
Ukraine's tactics have changed since May 2025, when the first major Russian offensive in the Zaporizhia direction was thwarted, and later expanded to the Donetsk region. In total, 3 major offensives have already been thwarted in the Zaporizhia direction.
The key change is the resumption of strikes on occupied territories, which had been refrained from since 2023. This was made possible by changing the military leadership to younger commanders who listen and have experience.
Previously, due to the mistakes of the commanders on the ground, Ukraine lost Gulyaipole, but now such mistakes are unacceptable. The Russians are trying to infiltrate near Pokrovsky to shell Zaporizhia, but so far without results. Ukraine is systematically destroying the enemy's energy infrastructure – the occupied part of the Zaporizhia region has been in a blackout since the beginning of the year. Recently, the SOU also disabled a substation near Andriyivka, so people there live without electricity,
– Andryuschenko explained.
Ukraine is planning more operations to completely block the Russians' energy supply. The next step after the energy sector was the destruction of communications and data centers. Therefore, the Internet in the occupied territories is practically paralyzed.
“The lack of communication affects even the infiltration of small groups – the enemy cannot coordinate the work. However, Russia is still pushing away certain territories and creating problems, and there is still a lot of work to do, but the effectiveness of the confrontation has increased,” Andryuschenko emphasized.
What else is known about the Russian attempts to advance on the front?
- The Russian army continues offensive operations in several directions, including in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions, but has not made significant progress. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched a series of strikes on enemy rear facilities.
- Zelenskyy said that according to the assessment of the British intelligence agency MI-6, the situation on the front is the best for Ukraine in the last 10 months. Ukrainian forces are liberating territories, the front line remains stable.
- In March, the Russians released a record number of KABs, as the occupiers try to compensate for the lack of results at the front.