Main points
- The war in the Middle East has led to a reduction in fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global food production.
- Fertilizer prices have increased, affecting the Ukrainian agricultural sector, where fertilizer costs have increased by an average of 27-29% compared to 2025.
The impact of war on fertilizer supplies / Photo Unsplash
The war in the Middle East has not only caused fuel prices to rise to record highs. It has also led to a reduction in fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 40% of all supplies of urea and phosphate additives pass.
How is the war in the Middle East affecting the world's fertilizer supply?
Warnings from the UN World Food Programme, researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and market data compiled by S&P Global Energy suggest that the impact of the conflict is spreading beyond the region, not only through rising fuel prices and disruption of shipping routes, but also through reduced fertilizer supplies, all of which are having a knock-on effect on global food production.
As is known, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the global fertilizer supply route could be reduced by approximately 33%, according to the Turkish news agency Anadolu Ajansı. However, earlier Reuters reported that fertilizer producers in Malaysia had already suspended new orders due to disruptions in supply chains.
Interesting! The main raw material for ammonia, from which nitrogen fertilizers are made, is blue fuel. According to The Fertilizer Institute, the Gulf countries directly or indirectly supply 49% of the world's urea exports, 30% of ammonia and almost 50% of the world's sulfur trade, which are key components for phosphate fertilizers. Countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman are major exporters of urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP) and anhydrous ammonia.
Thus, the Middle East’s supply problems and rising gas prices have already affected the cost of ammonia production, including in Europe. Interestingly, IFPRI estimates that if supply disruptions continue, a third of global fertilizer trade could be affected.
According to market analysts, the Farmonaut publication states that in February fertilizer prices were at the following level:
- Urea – approximately $580-700 per ton,
- DAP – about 630 – 780 dollars per ton,
- Potash fertilizers – approximately $525-720 per ton,
- Ammonium nitrate – approximately $550-700 per ton.
Important! Back in the first week of March, after the start of the US and Israeli operation against Iran, urea prices in the Middle East closed at $590 per ton, which is $90 more than the week before.
How supply disruptions affect the Ukrainian agricultural sector
Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, Denys Marchuk, told Channel 24 that this entire supply situation will directly affect the Ukrainian agricultural market, because Ukraine is a consumer of a large amount of imported fertilizers.
Denys Marchuk,
Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council
Even before the Great War, we had imports, and now domestic production has also decreased, particularly for nitrogen fertilizers. And what is happening in the world through rising prices also affects Ukraine.
Expert from the Ukrainian Agricultural and Food Agency Yevgeny Barkov told Channel 24 that since gas is the main raw material for the synthesis of nitrogen fertilizers, the correlation between the price of the energy carrier and the price of the final product is maximum. Therefore, fertilizer costs increased by an average of 27-29% depending on the crop compared to 2025: ammonium nitrate – +37%, urea – +43%, CAS-32 – +54%.
Yevgeny Barkov,
Coordinator of the Committee of Fertilizer Market Operators of the Ukrainian Agricultural Agricultural Bank (UKAB)
At the same time, the problem with logistics and the reduction in domestic production of ammonium nitrate from 1.99 million tons in 2024-2025 to 1.016 million tons in the 2025-2026 season due to enemy attacks on infrastructure and power outages led to a shortage of ammonium nitrate for the spring sowing campaign of up to 190 thousand tons as of early March 2026.
Pay attention! According to Barkov, the main suppliers for urea are Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. As for ammonium nitrate, the main logistics hub is the European Union. And in terms of suppliers, Georgia and Bulgaria remain the priority.
As economist Ivan Us explains in a conversation with Channel 24, the first thing to pay attention to is urea. The main suppliers of this fertilizer include Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Ivan Us,
Chief Consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Candidate of Economic Sciences
However, this is more a problem for other countries than for Ukraine, because the Gulf countries are not the main suppliers of fertilizer for us.
Thus, according to Us, disruptions in fertilizer supplies will not have a critical impact on Ukraine yet, but a global deficit could change the global fertilizer market as a whole. And this would mean risks for Ukraine as well.
This is the view of Marchuk, who adds that despite the fact that Ukraine does not directly purchase fertilizers from the Middle East, global price fluctuations still affect our market, because we are part of it. The expert notes that “Regardless of where Ukraine buys fertilizers – in Europe or Central Asia – their cost is increasing due to a reduction in supply with consistently high demand. Additionally, prices are pressured by the rise in the price of gas, which is the main raw material for production.”
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